Note: This blog post will NOT be updated with the latest forecast information regarding the upcoming potential heavy rain and high wind event. For the latest community updates, please stay tuned to your local media outlets, and check on the latest official forecasts, watches, and warnings on the Honolulu Forecast Office’s (HFO) website.
It’s the first full weekend of February, and for sports enthusiasts, one of the main events, especially for fans of the Seattle Seahawks (like me) and the new england patriots, is the Super Bowl on Sunday. Despite being in the heart of the wet season, I don’t recall too many significant weather events recently on Super Bowl Sunday, but this one may be different.
Based on model projections, it looks like the weekend will have a lot of wind and rain, especially along the windward sides of the state. The reason is that there’s a cold front moving into the area from the northwest (see surface analysis map and GOES-18 satellite image loop below). The front should reach Kauaʻi Friday afternoon, progress southeastward down the island chain, then stall and dissipate somewhere around Maui County on Saturday. A low pressure trough aloft (see 200 mb 00-hr and 72-hr panels below) is also forecast to drop down to the west of the state to create unstable conditions that will tap into the low level moisture left over by the dissipated front. Strong trade winds (see FV3 model forecast panel below) will also develop over the island chain on Sunday, which should help further enhance rainfall along the windward slopes.
Surface analysis from 2 AM HST, February 6, 2026, posted by the Honolulu Forecast Office (HFO). The line northwest of Kauaʻi (below and right of center) with blue triangles marks the position of the cold front.
NOAA/NESDIS GOES-18 color enhanced infrared (IR) image loop covering the tropical central and east Pacific on the morning of February 6, 2026. In this enhancement curve, blue, green, yellow, and orange colors show the coldest (and highest) cloud tops. Lighter gray shades are low clouds, and the darker gray areas are the ocean or land areas. Annotations in yellow are my own.
Geopotential heights and winds at 200 millibars from the GFS model’s 00-hr panel valid at 2 AM HST, February 6, 2026. Figure downloaded from the NCEP Model Analyses and Guidance website. Annotations in red are my own.
Same as previous, but for the 72-hr panel valid at 2 AM HST, February 9, 2026.
Near-surface wind and 3-hour precipitation forecast valid for 2 PM HST Sunday, February 8, 2026 from the NCEP FV-3 model. Wind barbs point in the direction of wind flow. Full tick marks on the barbs are for 10 knot increments and half tick marks are for 5 knots. Triangle pennants indicate 50 knot increments, but none are shown in this frame.
Another useful view is the simulated infrared (IR) satellite loop which takes model forecasts and converts them to what a geostationary IR image may look like in the future. This helps forecasters visualize the conditions that the model is projecting over the next several days. The loop below is from the ECMWF model and covers the forecasts from 5 AM HST Saturday, February 7 to 11 AM HST Tuesday, February 10. The green, yellow, and orange colors indicate high clouds that increase in coverage Saturday and cover much of the state through Monday before weakening and moving to the southwest on Tuesday.
ECMWF simulated color enhanced IR image loop centered on the main Hawaiian Islands covering the period from 5 AM HST February 7 through 11 AM HST, February 10, 2026. In this enhancement scale, gray shades are either the surface or low cloud tops. Blue, green, yellow, and orange shades are high cloud tops. Graphics provided by WeatherBELL Analytics.
The panels below show accumulated precipitation forecasts for the 5-day period ending at 2 AM HST Wednesday, February 11 from the GFS (top), ECMWF (middle), and UKMO (bottom) models. Common features among the three models include enhanced rainfall over the windward slopes across the state, widespread amounts over an inch in a broad southwest-to-northeast oriented swath, and large amounts far southwest of the state closer to the core of the low pressure system aloft. Peak amounts over the islands differ between the models, with the ECMWF showing a maximum over east Molokaʻi, the GFS showing its island max over east Maui, and the UKMO showing its max over the Hāmākua Coast of the Big Island. This appears to indicate that a key factor in how the heavy rain and flash flooding threat will play out is where the frontal band eventually stalls and dissipates over the next day or two.
Accumulated precipitation forecasts for the 5-day period ending at 2 AM HST Wednesday, February 11 from the GFS (top), ECMWF (middle), and UKMO (bottom) models. Graphics provided by WeatherBELL Analytics.
HFO issued a Flood Watch for the entire state early Friday morning for possible flash flooding from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon. At this point in time, it’s just too early to know exactly which island will receive the highest amounts. Also keep in mind that although the windward slopes will likely have the highest amounts, the strong trades can easily carry showers into portions of the leeward areas of the smaller islands (Kauaʻi to Molokaʻi). Additionally, the flood threat is not just where the rain is occurring, but also the areas where the water in the streams and rivers flow, which can easily be along the lower leeward areas.
Prime areas of concern for a windward heavy rain event include, but are not limited to:
- Kauaʻi: Kūhiō Highway from the Hanalei River Bridge to Hanalei town.
- Oʻahu: Kamehameha Highway at Waikāne Stream and Waiāhole Stream.
- Molokaʻi: Kamehameha V Highway (Highway 450) at several low water crossings.
- Maui: Hāna Highway, especially east of Keʻanae, and ʻUlaʻino Road (west of Hāna Airport).
- Big Island: Māmalahoa Highway (Highway 19), especially from Honomū to Honokaʻa. Landslides are a frequent occurrence at various spots along this stretch of the highway. If the heavy rain gets into Hilo and Puna, then the usual flood spots are in play in these areas as well.
The strong trades will also be a concern with this event. Adding heavy rainfall will just make things worse, with higher potential for downed trees and utility poles causing power outages and closing roads in addition to flooding impacts.
As has been my practice for posts covering upcoming heavy rain events, I’ll end here by adding some preparedness tips and resources for reference. Be prepared and be safe!
- Do not drive on roads with fast-flowing water.
- Just 1 to 2 feet of fast-flowing water can sweep most vehicles off a road.
- Do not walk across flooded streams.
- If you’re hiking and get stranded, wait for the water to recede.
- Expect other rainy weather impacts.
- Increased road travel times.
- Possible detours or road closures due to flooding or landslides.
- Outdoor activities may be postponed, canceled, or adjusted.
- The wet season brings increased potential for lightning strikes.
- Be prepared for power outages, especially when thunderstorms are forecast.
- Move indoors when you hear thunder or see a flash of lightning.
- Lightning strikes can occur even in areas where it is not raining.
- Although rare, thunderstorms occasionally produce damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes in Hawaiʻi.
- If you live in a flood-prone area, have an evacuation plan in case flood waters quickly threaten your home.
Additional resources:
- Hawaiʻi Emergency Management Agency (HIEMA): HIEMA’s website contains a wealth of preparedness information for many natural hazards.
- County Emergency Management Agencies: Your respective county emergency management offices will have specific information affecting your county, including availability and status of evacuation shelters.